The Trump administration made a major splash in the race for a COVID-19 vaccine this week with its $1.95 billion supply deal for Pfizer and BioNTech's shot. With 100 million doses due in the deal, the two companies stand to turn a profit on the agreement—and that's not such a bad thing, one analyst writes. 

Pfizer and BioNTech will sell their mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine to the U.S. government at an estimated cost of $19.50 per shot, a price tag that will leave the companies with a "decent margin" of 60% to 80% profit, SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges wrote in a note to investors Wednesday. 

By Porges' lights, the two companies' $1.95 billion U.S. supply deal for 100 million doses, signed Wednesday, will provide a price-point "benchmark" for other COVID-19 vaccine makers who have not yet set a price tag and will not sell their shots for zero profit.

Pfizer and BioNTech's likely two-shot regimen, including a booster, would cost U.S. commercial payers around $40 and government payers like Medicare and the U.S. Vaccines for Children program, roughly $20, Porges wrote. Developing nations will also likely receive the companies' vaccine at $10 per shot, according to Porges, a figure that most vaccine makers might also pledge to meet for their own candidates. 

As part of their deal with the Department of Health and Human Services' (HHS) Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), 100 million doses of Pfizer and BioNTech's shot will be distributed at no cost to U.S. patients.

BARDA has also reserved the option to buy an additional 500 million doses of the vaccine. The taxpayer-funded $19.5 billion deal was the single largest bet put down by the Trump administration's Warp Speed initiative to rapidly develop and distribute COVID-19 shots. 

RELATED: Pfizer, BioNTech snare $1.95B deal with U.S. government for 100M-plus doses of COVID-19 vaccine

Despite Porges' take that Pfizer and BioNTech's shot will hit the market at a reasonable price, the companies' choice to turn a profit could anger consumer groups and legislators who have called for vaccine makers to distribute their shots at cost. 

Porges cited the "serious risk of massive disappointment and value destruction" if vaccine makers' R&D costs and at-risk manufacturing fail to bear fruit as one primary incentive to turn a profit on a COVID-19 shot. In fact, Porges said the negative pressure on innovation caused by a "zero-profit" pledge during this pandemic could cause shock waves for years in the anti-infective space.

"It is all very well for global companies to make promises of zero profit, but for the smaller companies that typically drive innovation and research in this industry, we believe such a commitment could destroy their ability to attract capital and pursue innovative approaches to preventing and treating these diseases," Porges wrote.

RELATED: Where do COVID-19 vaccine players stand on pricing? So far, it's no profit, slight profit or undecided

But global drugmakers have still made that pledge, which Porges called "anti-competitive and anti-research."

Both Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca have touted their intent to make their shots available for no profit to patients around the world, with J&J pledging to make its vaccine available at a single price point around the world. 

Meanwhile, Massachusetts biotech Moderna has only hinted at the potential price tag for its shot, with CEO Stéphane Bancel telling Business Insider there's "no world, I think, where we would contemplate to price this higher than other respiratory virus vaccines." Flu vaccine prices vary from $0 to $50 or more per dose, according to GoodRx.

Meanwhile, analysts predict that Moderna's mRNA-based shot could churn out $5 billion in sales if it receives a full FDA approval or emergency use authorization. 

RELATED: Pfizer, BioNTech ink U.K. supply pact for 30M COVID-19 vaccine doses

Unlike some of those drugmakers, however, Pfizer and BioNTech have so far taken no money from Trump's Warp Speed initiative to fund development or manufacturing for their vaccine. By contrast, Novavax signed the largest deal of that kind with the government, for $1.6 billion, earlier this month. 

In addition to their massive deal with BARDA, Pfizer and BioNTech also inked a deal earlier this week with the U.K. government to supply 30 million doses of their vaccine hopeful over the next two years. The partners plan to enter phase 2/3 human trials for multiple vaccine candidates later this month and hope to submit for regulatory review by October.